b'Canberra observed All good, but we need political, social and cultural engagement with the issues to make change happen effectively.PopulationPopulation growth is forecast to slow down. This is a downward revision from previous IGRs, because of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on migration, as well as lower fertility rates, currently trending to below the level required to sustain the size of the population. Continued growth, albeit at a slower rate, means Australias total population is projected to reach 38.8 million in 2060-61. This is more than one million less than the estimates in the 2015 IGR.The age profile of the population will change significantly. According to the current IGR, between 2019-20 and 2060-61 the number of Australians aged 65 and older will double to 8.9 million. In 2019-20 there were 6400 centenarians, but by 2060-61, that Figure 3.Total Australian Oil and Condensate quarterly production 2005-2021 in ML per quarter (orangecohort is projected to be 40 900. line) and West Texas crude oil price in $US/bl (blue line), normalised to June 2021 dollars. Sources: http:// Something to look forward to?www.environment.gov.au/energy/petroleum-statistics and http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/var/west-texas-crude-long Health and aged careprice of iron will fall. Even with the fallCOVID delayed the 2020 document byAn ageing population may reduce the in price, its export value is worth abouta year (https://treasury.gov.au/sites/ number of working-age people as a share the same as the sum of all the otherdefault/files/2021-06/p2021-182464.pdf)of the population. However, if labour resource exports, apart from LNG. Youbut the 180-page report is now available. productivity improves and fewer people can add together the value of gold, coal,are needed to provide the services we other base metals and all the others andWhile recognising that you cannotrequire, this may not be a problem.you only reach about $112 billion. LNGpredict the future, it describes a useful exports in 2022/23 are estimated to bepath for the next 40 years. It is easier toAustralian government health spending about $2 billion. change a plan than to have no plan at all.is projected to continue to increase as a Let us look at three issues: share of GDP from 4.1 per cent in 2018-19 Given these numbers the importance ofto 6.2 per cent in 2060-61. This is lower improving our relationship with China isThe environment than the earlier estimates, which forecast obvious. about 9% GDP health spending by 2050. The natural environment is criticalThe annual per-capita costs are projected to quality of life and the state of theto increase from $3250 in 2018-19 to Forecasting the futurethe vieweconomy. The IGR recognises that$8700 in 2060-61 (2021 $s).from the Australian Treasury Australia will have to respond and adapt to environmental challenges that willAged care spending is expected to Every five years from 2002 the Australianaffect the economy and the budget.increase substantially as a share of the Treasury has embarked on a fascinatingRising global temperatures will impacteconomy, from 1.2 per cent of GDP exercise to forecast what the economyon everyone. in 2020-21 to 2.1 per cent of GDP in and the Commonwealth budget will2060-61 (or $113 billion in 2021$s). This look like over the next 40 years. TheseThe IGR recognises that climate changesignifies population growth and ageing, Intergenerational Reports (IGRs)will have significant implications foras the baby boomer generation enters examine the long-term sustainability ofAustralias export income. But it predictsaged-care eligibility age. The annual per current policies and how demographic,demand for clean energy, critical mineralscapita aged-care spending is projected technological and other structural trendsand hydrogen will increase, creating newto increase from $5460 to $12 500 for may affect the economy and the budget. opportunities for Australia. people aged 65 and over.AUGUST 2021 PREVIEW 34'